The NHL draft lottery is an annual event that determines the order of selection for the first 15 picks in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft.Lottery Simulator It was implemented in 1995 as a way to discourage teams from intentionally losing games in order to secure a higher draft pick, a strategy known as “tanking.”
Prior to the draft lottery, the order of selection was solely determined by each team’s regular season record and playoff finish. This led some teams to deliberately perform poorly in order to improve their chances of drafting a generational talent, one that could single-handedly transform the fate of a struggling franchise.
The creation of the draft lottery added an element of chance, making it more difficult for teams to successfully tank their way to a top pick. Now the team with the worst regular season record is not guaranteed the first overall selection—any of the clubs that miss the playoffs have a chance to win the lottery and move up in the draft order.
The lottery works by assigning odds for the first overall pick based on the inverse order of the final regular season standings. The team with the lowest point total has the best lottery odds, but it’s not a sure thing they will actually get the top choice. This helps prevent teams from racing to the bottom of the standings to clinch the first pick. The lottery and draft order only affects the first round; the remaining rounds are ordered by the regular season standings.
How the Draft Lottery Works
The NHL draft lottery is a weighted system that determines the order of selection in the first round of the NHL entry draft. It was first implemented in 1995 as a way to discourage teams from intentionally losing games in order to secure a higher draft pick, a practice known as “tanking.”
The lottery works by assigning odds to secure the first overall pick based on the standings from the regular season. The team that finished last has the best odds to win the lottery, followed by the next-worst team, and so on. The odds get progressively lower through the bottom 15 teams that did not make the playoffs.
For the lottery, the NHL conducts a drawing of ping pong balls, labeled with team logos, to determine the order of the top three picks. The team that wins the lottery moves up to get the first overall selection. The remaining teams stay in their original order based on the final standings.
The odds of winning the lottery for the last place team are typically around 18%, while the 14th place team has just a 2% chance. This weighted system gives struggling teams a good chance to get an elite prospect, while still preventing teams from blatantly tanking to guarantee themselves the top pick.
The lottery only affects the first round order. All other rounds are ordered by the regular season standings. So the team that finishes last is guaranteed no worse than the second overall pick, but could pick first if they win the lottery.
Notable Draft Lottery Outcomes
The NHL draft lottery has led to some dramatic moments and surprising outcomes since its inception in 1995. Here are some of the most notable draft lottery results over the years:
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In 2017, the New Jersey Devils jumped from 5th to 1st overall despite having just an 8.5% chance of winning the top pick. They selected Nico Hischier, who became an immediate impact player for the team.
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In 2019, the New Jersey Devils lucked out again, going from 3rd to 1st and selecting American center Jack Hughes 1st overall. Hughes was touted as a generational talent and the clear top prospect of the draft class.
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In 2007, the Chicago Blackhawks vaulted from 5th to 1st, despite just an 8.1% chance of winning the lottery. With the pick, they selected Patrick Kane, who became a superstar and helped lead Chicago to three Stanley Cup titles.
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In 2005, the Pittsburgh Penguins won the lottery despite having just a 6.3% chance. This landed them Sidney Crosby, who transformed the struggling Penguins into perennial contenders. It was a franchise-changing moment.
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In 2017, the Philadelphia Flyers moved up from 13th to 2nd, allowing them to select Nolan Patrick with a pick they had just a 2.4% chance of getting. Patrick became an important young piece for the Flyers’ rebuild.
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In 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs jumped from 4th to 1st, securing Auston Matthews despite just a 20% chance. Matthews has become the face of the Maple Leafs’ resurgence.
The lottery has provided struggling teams opportunities to land elite talent and accelerate their rebuilds. The odds are stacked against teams, but the lottery allows dark horse teams to leapfrog the standings and build around top young players.
Online Draft Lottery Simulators
Online draft lottery simulators allow hockey fans to experience the excitement and unpredictability of the NHL draft lottery without having to wait for the actual event. These simulators use the official lottery odds to randomly generate draft selections for each team in the lottery. Fans can run these simulations as many times as they want to get a sense of the range of possible outcomes.
Some of the most popular online NHL draft lottery simulators include:
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DraftLotterySimulator.com – This simulator has a simple interface that lets you run unlimited simulations with just one click and see the results instantly. You can even simulate specific draft years going back over a decade.
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NHLLotterySim.com – In addition to running simulations, this site lets you view odds and historical results. There is also an option to run weighted simulations that increase the chance of outlier results happening.
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SportsClubStats.com – This simulator focuses on calculating the percentages for every possible draft order outcome. It’s a great tool for seeing just how likely specific scenarios are.
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Team-Specific Simulators – Some team sites like the Maple Leafs’ and Red Wings’ have their own simulators tailored specifically to that fanbase.
Running draft lottery simulations is a fun way for hockey fans to pass time and dream about landing that top prospect. And when the actual lottery takes place, it’s interesting to see how the results compare to countless simulated outcomes.
Using the Simulator
The NHL Draft Lottery Simulator is easy and fun to use. Simply go to the simulator website and you’ll see a graphical interface showing all 16 NHL teams who missed the playoffs. Their odds of winning the #1 overall pick are listed next to their logo.
To run a simulation, just click the “Sim Lottery” button. The page will refresh, and the team logos will shuffle around randomly based on their odds. The team at the top after shuffling wins the #1 pick.
You can run as many simulations as you want, clicking the “Sim Lottery” button each time. It’s interesting to see the results, as unlikely outcomes can and do occur. No single team is guaranteed the top pick.
Once you’re done simulating, you can view summary percentages showing each team’s probability of picking 1st, 2nd etc based on all your trial runs. This helps give you a sense of the most likely outcomes.
The simulator is easy to reset and use over and over again. It’s a fun way to get a feel for the randomness and odds involved in the NHL draft lottery before the real one takes place.
Simulating This Year’s Lottery
The 2023 NHL draft is shaping up to be an exciting one, with several highly touted prospects available. Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli are projected to be the top two picks, but the order is still to be determined by the draft lottery.
Using the online simulator, we can get an idea of the most likely outcomes for this year’s lottery. For example, I ran a simulation with the current odds and got these results for the top 3 picks:
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Anaheim Ducks
- Philadelphia Flyers
Columbus, Anaheim, and Philadelphia finished near the bottom of the standings this season, so it’s no surprise they have the best odds at landing the #1 pick. In this simulation, Columbus gets lucky and wins the Bedard sweepstakes.
Running the simulator multiple times generates different results each time. In another simulation, I got:
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Ottawa Senators
The Blackhawks moved up from the 4th best odds to snag the top pick here. No one will know the actual order until the live lottery takes place before the playoffs.
Most Likely Outcomes
The most frequent simulation results tend to align with the official lottery odds set by the NHL. For example, the team with the worst record has the best chance of landing the #1 overall pick. However, thanks to the randomness of the lottery process, the actual results don’t always follow the odds.
When running hundreds or even thousands of simulations, certain outcomes emerge as the most likely based on the odds:
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The team with the worst record has the highest probability of getting the #1 pick. This occurs in around 25% of simulations.
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The team with the second-worst record has the next highest chance at the top pick, at around a 20% probability.
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The remaining teams in lottery spots #3 through #15 have diminishing odds of moving up to the #1 pick, based on their position.
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Teams closer to the bottom of the standings are more likely to get a top 3 pick than teams closer to the playoff positions.
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There is approximately a 50% chance that the team with the worst record falls no further than the #2 overall pick.
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It is very rare for playoff teams (picks #16-31) to move into the top 3 picks, but still possible.
By running hundreds or thousands of simulations, we can identify the most probable outcomes based on the weighted lottery system. But the unlikely and unpredictable scenarios are what make the draft lottery so exciting for fans to simulate.
Unlikely But Possible Scenarios
While the odds are stacked against certain teams, there’s always a chance for an unlikely outcome in the NHL draft lottery. Here are some scenarios that are improbable but not impossible:
The Last Place Team Falls to 4th Overall
The team that finishes dead last in the standings has the best individual odds to win the lottery at 18.5%, but it’s not guaranteed. In 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs had the best odds yet fell to 4th overall. The Leafs selected Auston Matthews anyway, but it was a surprise. This year, if the last place Buffalo Sabres or Detroit Red Wings fell to 4th, it would be a shock.
Two Teams Jump Into the Top Three
The odds of any team jumping into the top three from outside are slim, between 1-3%. But it’s possible for multiple teams to get lucky. In 2017, the Philadelphia Flyers jumped from 13th to 2nd, while the Dallas Stars went from 8th to 3rd. If two teams jump up this year, it would give the lottery a wild shakeup.
The Biggest Jump Possible
The team with the lowest odds to win the lottery is the team that just missed the playoffs. They have a 1% chance. The biggest longshot would be if that team jumped all the way to 1st overall. This has never happened in the history of the NHL lottery, but mathematically it’s possible. If it happened this year, just imagine the madness.
Fan Reactions
Fans love to use NHL draft lottery simulators as a fun way to speculate about the upcoming draft. Running simulations allows fans to imagine various scenarios, like their favorite team getting the first overall pick or their rival missing out on a top prospect. It’s an entertaining activity that builds excitement and anticipation leading up to the real lottery.
Some fans take the simulations very seriously and run hundreds of trials to determine the most likely outcomes. Others casually run a few for entertainment. Most fans understand the simulations are just for fun and not predictive, but it’s still enjoyable to see the possibilities play out. When their team beats the odds in a simulation, fans get their hopes up and start imagining that player in their lineup next season.
Of course, the simulations can also produce disappointing results for fans. Watching their team end up with a later pick over and over can dampen a fan’s enthusiasm. But the nature of a simulation means anything can happen, so fans don’t give up hope until the actual lottery takes place.
The popularity of draft lottery simulators demonstrates fans’ passion for speculating about the future of their favorite team. While the simulations don’t impact the real results, they provide an outlet for fans to dream about their team winning the lottery against the odds. It’s all part of the excitement and anticipation that makes being a sports fan so engaging.
Conclusion
Online draft lottery simulators are a fun way for fans to get a sense of the possibilities and see how the ping pong balls may bounce on lottery day. Running through the simulations shows the most likely outcomes based on the assigned odds, though there is always the possibility of an upset win. While the simulator can’t predict exactly what will happen, it generates realistic results that reflect the randomness and drama of the real NHL draft lottery.
The draft lottery represents hope and renewal for teams and fanbases longing for better days. Securing the first overall pick is not a guarantee of success, but it provides struggling franchises with a highly valued asset in the quest to build a winning team. Despite the long odds, supporters of lottery-bound teams can’t help but dream of bucking the percentages and moving up to draft a foundational superstar. The lottery gives every team and its fans a chance to imagine a brighter future.